Best Supporting Vlog (Ep. 7): Feeling the love and breaking down the noms

I need some help with my ballots next week, guys.  I want to take home some swag from the parties I am attending as well as free rentals from World of Video in the Village, which charges $1 per ballot.  Could you give us some heads up on the short films and documentaries, which none of us have seen?

Oscar math was kind of dopey, but I'm glad you managed to mention my wonderful neighbor Cherry Jones.  I think the reason Meryl is not going to win is because so many people remember how fantastic Cherry was on stage in that role.  Too bad she doesn't work more, but she has had a terrific career nonetheless.  She is a great actress and a great bike rider.   She leaves almost no footprint on the planet whatsoever.

Forgot to mention John looks really good in red. 

I loved the Oscar math and I wanna see that "princess goes Holocaust shopping"-movie NOW!!! A tear-jerker set in the 40ies with an 80ies-music-montage and a happy ending.

I need some help with the short films as well. I've only seen Presto (Thank you, Wall-e). Me and my friends don't play for money but for pure honor.

I will be so sad when Oscar time is over, because I absolutely love this vlog. And yes, red does make John look even more attractive.

i have been watching and predicting best pic oscars for 23 years now... and i have been wrong 3 times (i thought that Saving Private Ryan was a lock, as with The Aviator over MIllion Dollar Baby, and ofcourse - the travesty of it all - Brokeback Mountain).

this award season has locks written all over it...but then again - look what happened in 2005 when it all crashed down.... so these are the safe bets for now:

PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR: Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
ACTRESS: Kate Winslet - The Reader
SUP. ACTOR: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
SUP. ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
SCRIPT ORIG: MILK!!!!
ADAPT : Slumdog Millionaire
EDITING: Slumdog
SCORE: Slumdog
SONG: Slumdog
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Slumdog
ART DIRECTION : The Curious Case of Benji Button
MAKE-UP: Benji Button
SOUND EDIT: The Dark Knight
SOUND: The Dark Knight
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Dark Knight
COSTUME : The Duchess
ANIMATION: WALL*E
DOC: Man on Wire

now the tricky part... these are the highly contested categories that is quite 50/50 for now...

BEST ACTOR: Sean Penn (for Milk) and Mickey Rourke (for Wrestler)
FOREIGN: Waltz with Bashir and The Class

Now i don't wanna confuse you... but the above are all locks... but there are possible spoilers so this is something to think about:

ACTRESS: Meryl Streep for Doubt
SUP. ACTRESS: either Viola or Taranji can steal this away from Penelope
VISUAL EFFECTS: if they love Benji Button then they might give this to this film
SOUND and SOUND EDITING: Wall*E can steal this
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Benji might also steal this but Slumdog is a safe bet
SONG: WALL*E perhaps?

so good luck to everyone who's going to cast their ballots or bets or in office pools.... for more in-depth forcasting - check out AwardsDaily, AwardsCircuit, Carpetbagger and In Contention - they are a good prognosticators for this... but ALWAYS REMEMBER - all of this can come CRASHING down... God i hate that movie.