This week on Flaming Politics, Japhy uses his awesome psychic powers to predict the future of the general election. If that doesn't get you, the limericks about conservative politics or the vaguely Wagnerian ode to the newly-formed House Gay Equality Caucus will.
Check it all out after the break!
Submitted by
on Fri, 2008-06-13 11:15.
5 Predictions for the Election
1. The President will be Left-Handed
2. The President will be a Man
3. The President will have at least 1 caucasian parent
4. The President will not be Muslim
5. The President will believe in Evolution
All snark aside, I don't feel comfortable making any predictions regarding the upcoming election. Why? Because nothing is quite so certain as the unpredictability of the American Electorate.
One may attribute the Republican win in 2000 to election-rigging by the GOP, but the fact of the matter is that the election was extremely close (not the mandate that the Republicans claimed) and that means a significant percentage of the American electorate voted for a woefully unqualified candidate, to the bewilderment of anyone who cared to even acquaint themselves with the candidates or their platforms. Then in 2004, after racking up a devastating budget deficit, miring us in an illegal war, curtailing our civil liberties, and alienating the world at large, a large percentage of Americans voted for him again.
Clealry, Logic cannot be used to predict what issue (whether superficial or substantive) the Electorate will choose to use to define their choice. When faced with the choice of 2 candidates, one asking us to think for ourselves, and another asking us to not think, but rather do what we are told, will Americans overcome their seemingly genetic need to go the easy route in order to "become the change we want to see in the world"?
Change is hard work.
www.thebittersuite.blogspot.com
The Republican smear machine...
...is the only thing that makes me nervous. I mean...I trust Sen. Obama and I'm comfortable with him. However...anything can surface and who knows how far they'll go just to make him at least look bad.
Aside from that...too many things favor the blues this fall.
It's already begun
re: the Republican smear machine: it's already hard at work. It's like Karl Rove and Lee Atwater all over again. And they know it has worked in the past, so why not use the tried and true methods of just making sh*t up, the more outrageous the better.
Obama's "smear" website, set up to answer the lies in a substantive, proving, and 21st-century (that is, electronic) way is an innovation that can work, if people know to go to it. But if people are determined to vote Republican no matter what (and that's the only reason I can discern for anyone voting for the bumbler that McCain has become), facts don't seem to matter.
We need somebody wise like Obama (and I mean both of 'em) in the White House.
first time seeing this (and him)
My predictions
I'm feeling optimistic as well Japhy. My predictions:
1. Edward Kennedy will give the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. Everyone will cry.
2. Obama will choose Kansas Gov Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate. Die-hard Hillary supporters will be outraged at first, then Obama will give a great speech on his reasons for choosing her, highlighting the hypocrisy and sexism of their objecting to her because she's a woman who is not Hillary. They quickly get over it.
3. Obama wins with turnout breaking every record.
4. Democrats will pick up between 6-7 seats in the Senate putting them very close to the 60 seat filibuster proof majority. Scared moderate Republicans begin caucusing with the Dems (Maine's Olympia Snowe may even change parties) and the Democrats will finally strip Lieberman of his seniority and kick him to the curb.
5. New York state will become the third to perform gay marriages by the end of 2009, and the first to pass it through the legislature.Bonus 2010 prediction: John McCain will lose his Senate seat to Arizona Gov Janet Napolitano
Fingers crossed.
Obama will choose...
2. Obama will choose Kansas Gov Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate. Die-hard Hillary supporters will be outraged at first, then Obama will give a great speech on his reasons for choosing her, highlighting the hypocrisy and sexism of their objecting to her because she's a woman who is not Hillary. They quickly get over it.
Gov. Sebelius is a wonderful woman...but your reasoning for the outrage is off. Sen. Clinton supporters will be upset that he picked a less qualified woman.
I hope he picks Webb. If he picks Sam Nunn I'll sit on my hands election day.
How is Sebelius less
How is Sebelius less qualified? She has different qualifications. She has executive experience. Hillary has none. She has been in elected office for 20 years, far more than Hillary Clinton. She has managed an economy and worked with a legislature as an executive. She has fought battles on abortion and coal mining in her deeply Republican state and won. She has also served a leadership role in the party as chair of the Democratic Governors Association.
And sorry to say this, but she got where she is without the help of a famous husband.
I think these are the things Obama would highlight in a speech nominating her (not the husband thing of course), showing she is fully qualified to be Vice President, perhaps more than Senator Clinton.
Sen. Snow
It would be great if you were right about Olympia Snow. Being orignally from Maine, I'm proud that both of our Republican Senators are old school small government Republicans, rather than Religious Right bigots, or big business cronies. I mean, I didn't vote for them, but still, at least they aren't crazy.
But Republicans have this bizzare party loyalty that seems to disregard whether or not they agree with the party leadership or not.
www.thebittersuite.blogspot.com
Just one prediction...
...and it's already been made.
Sen. Obama will sweep the EC election night. Several red states will flip blue. He has millions of dollars to focus on registration drives in the south.
I don't think his VP choice will be a woman...I hope it's not Sen. Clinton. She's better used elsewhere in our Gov't.
One slight disagreement with Japhy. Al Gore under Bill Clinton changed the VP role...Dick Cheney under GW Bush destroyed it.
Japhy...a little rehearsal wouldn't hurt
You are cute as a bug's ear, and obvioiusly know your stuff, but you need to relax. Either lose the autocue or get comfortable reading from it. It's distracting, and you have the prescense to get beyond it.
On another note, believe it or not, Bill Clinton ran on a Change campaign, and there was a real thread of optimism at this election of how things would be different. We saw how that ended up...crafty old insiders will outfox fresh young outsiders every time. Some of the main villians were the establishment Dems who resented him and Hil. And we got Republican congress out of it, and finally a Republican president. Its almost iconic to see Barack defeat Hil using Bill's message. Still I have to wonder if there will be a similar outcome.
Nous Sommes Tous Sauvages.
I'm trying to work out a
I'm trying to work out a scenario where Clinton as veep is a good idea. Not getting it.
Oh and heh, you said caucus.
nothing is written
I think HRC can never be VP, and it's for the very reason you evinced at the end: Hillary Clinton is one of the 20th century's best politicians. She's not a 21st-century politician, and I don't think she really adds anything. But I think The Economist has adequately eviscerated her campaign:
http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11496736
I hope you're right about California and the likelihood of passage, but don't forget that there's another anti-gay constitutional amendment on the ballot in Florida, one that would extend its prohibitions well beyond excluding same-sex couples from marriage (and does not have the "take it away" effect). Polling is pretty tight right now on both...a lot of work needs to be done in both states.
I also think you're insanely optimistic about this election. As much as I'd like to believe you're right, and Obama will be elected, there's nothing like the Republican smear machine (which they learned from the Clintons, to be fair). Daily "slip ups" from Fox News comparing Obama to Osama, comments about arugula, basketball, gangsters, whitey, etc. are going to last from now until November. Add to that the possibility of some sort of terrorist attack between now and then...as Lawrence of Arabia said (movie, not real life): nothing is written.
1. Obama will pick a
1. Obama will pick a Governor to be his running mate.
2 Obama will win with anywhere between 280 and 300 electorial votes
3. Charlie Crist will be outed(again)
4. The Wire will finally get an Emmy nomination.
5. John McCain will confuse Sunni and Shia Labouf.
The Wire
"The Wire" has been nominated for an Emmy. Yes, only one. I was nominated in the category Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series for the season 3 episode "Middle Ground" with a story by George P. Pelecanos & David Simon and written by George P. Pelecanos. Creator David Simon (whose brother I happen to work with, a very respected infectious disease doctor) has 2 Emmys on his mantle already for Outstanding Miniseries and Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries or a Movie for the 2000 miniseries, "The Corner".
I know you were talking about a major award like Outstanding Drama Series but I like pointing out that I am a huge nerd about show business awards.
election prediction
There will be an international crisis weeks before the election. (Remember the Iran hostage crisis of 1980 when papa Bush was the head of the C.I.A? It cost Carter his re-election.)
When the next crisis hits, Obama will be asked his opinion on what to do, McCain will be noncommittal or unavailable for comment. It won't matter what Obama says, McCain and the President will go the other way, resolve the crisis and thus prove Obama's incompetence and McCain's ability to answer the phone. McCain will win the election. Obama's running mate will be a footnote in history. Hillary would do well to stay clear of Obama at this point.
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Hooray Brian Schweitzer!
Hey Japhy.
As always, great video column.
I do have to disagree with you on some big points in your predictions. First, I do not think this will be as big a win for Obama as you think it will be. If any Republican was going to stand a chance against a Democrat this year it was John McCain because he at least has the perception of being the maverick which the media is always going to refer to. If by November 4, a voter has the perception of McCain as a maverick, whether or not it is actual fact, they are going to take that into the voting booth. Remember the woman in West Virginia who told a reporter she couldn't vote for Obama because he was a Muslim? It didn't matter whether or not he actually was because the perception of it had already entered into her head. It seems that the perception of being a maverick has a shelf life of over 8 years.
I could tell that it wasn't easy for you to say Hillary Clinton was going to be Obama's running mate but I do think you are very misguided here. Obama's central message is change and Clinton does nothing to reinforce that message. As my Senator, Jim Webb, seems more and more like a great running mate, I don't think he'll get chosen because he's only been in the Senate for less time than Obama has, even though he has a lot of time around Washington. I give you great credit for mentioning Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer. He's up for re-election this year and is extremely popular in his state. It might only bring in MT's 3 electoral votes, but wouldn't it look great if that big chunk of normally red America that is Montana were to turn blue? I think Gov. Sebelius, Gov. Richardson, Sen. Biden, Gov. Rendell, fmr. Sen. Nunn, or Gen. Clark are the most likely options. I'm rooting for either Biden or Rendell.
Thanks again for a great column and keep them coming.
2 Questions
1) Did you see the HBO movie Recount? What did you think of it and do you think it was a fair portrayal of what happened?
2) What would you say to the possibility of Richard Clarke being Obama's running mate? This is a guy with a lot of experience with intelligence and managing it and is able to take the Republicans to the cleaners when it comes to national security.
Thanks.
Thanks Charles
I didn't know they were nominated.
Oh well I guess Michael Williams and Clark Peters are going to have to wait for some other show to get there just due. The whole show should have been nominated for best drama, but I digress.
HRC
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