If the Oscars are the “Gay Superbowl,” then the Tony Awards are the half-time show – a whole lot more fun, with more chance of seeing a winner thank his or her same-sex partner. The official race for this year’s Tonys – held on June 10 – kicked off this morning with the announcement of the nominees, read by Jane Krakowski (a previous winner for Nine), and Rent boy Taye Diggs. Looking over the list, it’s easy to see sources for pending drama come Tony night.

The big story is the impressive number of nominations garnered by Spring Awakening, which tops the list at 11, including Best Musical. Featuring a pop rock score by Duncan Sheik, the musical brings a welcome jolt of youthful energy to Broadway, much like Rent did more than a decade ago. However, as with any show featuring unknown actors and a creative team new to Broadway, the chances of success depend on how much Tony voters want to reward innovation and how much they feel compelled to stick with more traditional fare and/or celebrate tried-and-true theater stalwarts.

Spring Awakening will clearly be battling it out for Best Musical with Grey Gardens, which seconds the list of total nominations at 10. In adding two spoonfuls of sugar to the Americanized version, the Broadway Mary Poppins removed the darker elements that led it to triumph at London’s Oliviers. And Curtains is largely considered a trifle by theater team Kander and Ebb, who have done much, much better work before and already been amply honored for it.

So this will come down to a battle between Spring Awakening and Grey Gardens, which is a win-win battle for gay audiences. Grey Gardens is, after all, based on a cult favorite documentary championed by, and long beloved by, many gay men. And Spring Awakening not only depicts a same-sex coupling but also serves as a general warning about the dangers of attempting to curtail and contain teenage sexuality. The question is whether the Tony will go to the more traditional linear book musical of the two – which, oddly enough, given its source material, is Grey Gardens – or to a musical that is unconventional in form and unrelentingly bleak in tone.

Gardens will clearly triumph in the Leading Actress in a Musical category. Unlike the Oscars, in which it’s often difficult to find 5 female performances strong enough to flesh out the category (this year notwithstanding), the Leading Actress in a Musical category is often the tightest competition. This year too sets up a veritable battle of the divas, pitting Donna Murphy (LoveMusik), Audra McDonald (110 in the Shade), Debra Monk (Curtains), and Christine Ebersole (Grey Gardens) against one another. All have previously won Tonys, but while the others are doing solid work in shows considered beneath them, Ebersole has the juiciest role of the bunch and is clearly giving the performance of her life. The omission of Kristin Chenoweth from the list for The Apple Tree demonstrates this is a year in which Tony is not thinking kindly upon stars “slumming it” in mediocre shows.

The Leading Actor in a Musical category is less starry and in some ways more compelling. Jonathan Groff gives a galvanizing performance in Spring Awakening, but he’s not carrying the show and likely has many years of possible nominations ahead of him. Michael Cerveris received solid reviews for LoveMusik but has won before (Featured Actor for Assassins). That leaves Raul Esparza, who has been outstanding in one production after another, including in flops like Taboo which earned him a nomination for Featured Actor. His performance in the revival of Company leaves audiences in tears and that, combined with his largely-unrewarded but more-than-worthy track record, will likely earn him a win.

On the dramatic front, The Coast of Utopia leads play nominations with 10, and faces its main competitor in fellow British import Frost/Nixon, unless Tony voters decide to honor the legacy of August Wilson with a nod to Radio Golf. The Little Dog Laughed -- the nominee with the most overt gay content and the benefit of a hilarious performance by nominee Julie White as a Hollywood shark -- was an off-Broadway show that never should have transferred to a bigger house and has already closed.

An 8-hour trilogy about Russian radicals, Utopia was, by any account, an impressive feat just in terms of the amount of work involved in mounting such a behemoth and performing it night after night. Whether or not that in and of itself is worthy of awards is another issue. Frost/Nixon, a production on a far lesser scale, might prove victorious if Tony voters view it as a more solid play. The same issue will apply to acting. No one can question the amount of work and dedication that goes into performing in an epic like Utopia. But does that mean that Brían F. O’Byrne will seize victory over Frost/Nixon’s Frank Langella, a smaller scale yet more showy and thrilling performance?

As always, the most fun part of the nominations is who’s been snubbed. It’s somewhat cruel (and somewhat deliciously so) that only one of the two battling divas in Deuce was acknowledged (Angela Lansbury but not Marian Seldes). Kevin Spacey – a previous winner for Lost in Yonkers and nominee for The Iceman Cometh – was probably hoping for awards galore in taking on another O’Neill classic, Moon for the Misbegotten. Critics found his performance too lightweight, and now Spacey doesn’t have to worry about taking his mother to the awards. And in a hopeful sign that Riverdancing has no place on the Great White Way, there were no major nominations for The Pirate Queen.

So, what do you think of this year’s nominees? Have you seen any of the nominated shows? What are the sure-fire wins, and where might there be upsets?