The Year in Movies: A Look Down the Red Carpet

As a follow-up to my Year in Movies article I wanted to write a piece looking forward to Awards Season, leading up to the Oscars. But I have to share a secret: Despite the fact that each year I devour all the movies guaranteed for awards consideration like so many Lorna Doones, I am notoriously terrible at predicting the winners. Maybe I let my idealism blind me to the politics that are a huge part of awards voting, or maybe I just have lousy taste. Either way, I'm a born Oscar Pool loser.

But this year I got lucky. Just last week I was having coffee with Madonna at the Waldorf Astoria (I'm not even kidding - more on that in a few months), and I happened to make the acquaintance of TheFilmExperience mastermind Nathaniel R. As a notable gay film awards blogger and man-about-town, he's got a great grasp of the year-end landscape and knows all the ins and outs of the various awards and their voters (be sure to check out his complete Oscar prediction charts). I'm delighted to welcome Nathaniel to this article to provide some expertise to balance to my cluelessness.

So, away we go!

Best Supporting Actor

My Guess: Jim Parsons as Charlotte Phelan in The Help. Seriously - I thought Big Bang fave Parsons was a ballsy actor when I saw him serving his Southern sass on Broadway in The Normal Heart, but it was nothing compared to the amazing job he did playing Emma Stone's mother in The Help. The attention- sorry, hold on a sec, I'm getting a call from our lawyers...

Nathaniel R: This will be a showbiz veteran war between 64 year old Albert Brooks (Drive) and 82 year old acting legend Christopher Plummer (Beginners), both playing against type (Oscar Bait!). This category favors villains, which would normally give Brooks the edge, but Oscar loves a dead gay (see: virtually all Oscar winning LGBT roles. Sigh), so put your money on Plummer's lovely work as a man coming out very late in life.

Best Supporting Actress

My Guess: Janet McTeer as Justin Long in Albert Nobbs. People are making a much-deserved fuss over Michelle Williams' uncanny channeling of Marilyn Monroe in My Week With Marilyn, but I was more impressed with McTeer's ability to capture the essence of "The Mac Guy" in this cross-dressing period piece. Granted, I don't quite get why Justin is an Irishman at the turn of the century, but I'm sure I'm missing a metaphor or something.

Nathaniel R: Oscar voters will be lining up for a serving of Octavia Spencer's pie in The Help.

Best Actor

My Guess: The Horse, War Horse. Few actors would be brave enough to do nude scenes opposite Michael Fassbender right after Shame came out.

Nathaniel R: Expect the media to go to town. We'll have a Bonafide Movie Star BFF Face Off. Will it be George Clooney (The Descendants) or Brad Pitt (Moneyball) taking home the gold? I'm personally pulling for Our Brad since Clooney already has an Oscar.

Best Actress

My Guess: Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in Iron Lady. Why? Because I'm always wrong.

Nathaniel R: Every year Streep-Maniacs hope that the great lady will win her third. Every year it looks like it's going to happen ... until it doesn't. Streep is as great as usual, but one wonders why she felt the need to star in a hagiography for a union-busting right-wing icon in this economy? I'm guessing Viola Davis in The Help.

Best Director

My Guess: Martin Scorcese for Hugo

Nathaniel R: This currently looks like France's Michel Hazanavicius's (The Artist) to lose unless too many voters are heard grumbling "who?"

Best Picture

My Guess: Moneyball - as payback for our gaying up the Superbowl with Madonna, the Gay Superbowl will be won by a sports movie.

Nathaniel R: The über charming silent film homage The Artist may well win this if voters are feeling nostalgia for Old Hollywood. But watch out for The Descendants, if Oscar's traditional aversion to light comedy kicks in, or if Hugo steals too many members of the nostalgia crowd from The Artist.

So! There's one expert opinion and also mine. Anyone care to make any guesses as to who will be taking home a tiny nude man in February?